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GLP-1 sales

GLP-1 revenue: 2025 baseline and outlook

Global GLP-1 revenue reached an estimated $79 billion in 2025. The United States accounted for approximately 69% of combined Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly GLP-1 sales. Published 2030 forecasts range from $114 billion (Goldman Sachs, obesity only) to $200 billion (J.P. Morgan, all incretins); the gap reflects differences in scope more than in growth assumptions.

Global GLP-1 sales, 2025
$79B
Morgan Stanley estimate, all makers
US share
69%
Of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly GLP-1 sales combined
New market leader
Lilly
$36.5B for Mounjaro and Zepbound, against about $35.4B for Novo's GLP-1 drugs
2030 forecasts
$114-200B
Goldman Sachs (obesity) to J.P. Morgan (all incretins)

Map, 2025

GLP-1 sales by region

US dollars. Hover a country for its region and total.

FijiTanzaniaW. SaharaCanadaUnited States of AmericaKazakhstanUzbekistanPapua New GuineaIndonesiaArgentinaChileDem. Rep. CongoSomaliaKenyaSudanChadHaitiDominican Rep.RussiaBahamasFalkland Is.NorwayGreenlandFr. S. Antarctic LandsTimor-LesteSouth AfricaLesothoMexicoUruguayBrazilBoliviaPeruColombiaPanamaCosta RicaNicaraguaHondurasEl SalvadorGuatemalaBelizeVenezuelaGuyanaSurinameFranceEcuadorPuerto RicoJamaicaCubaZimbabweBotswanaNamibiaSenegalMaliMauritaniaBeninNigerNigeriaCameroonTogoGhanaCôte d'IvoireGuineaGuinea-BissauLiberiaSierra LeoneBurkina FasoCentral African Rep.CongoGabonEq. GuineaZambiaMalawiMozambiqueeSwatiniAngolaBurundiIsraelLebanonMadagascarPalestineGambiaTunisiaAlgeriaJordanUnited Arab EmiratesQatarKuwaitIraqOmanVanuatuCambodiaThailandLaosMyanmarVietnamNorth KoreaSouth KoreaMongoliaIndiaBangladeshBhutanNepalPakistanAfghanistanTajikistanKyrgyzstanTurkmenistanIranSyriaArmeniaSwedenBelarusUkrainePolandAustriaHungaryMoldovaRomaniaLithuaniaLatviaEstoniaGermanyBulgariaGreeceTurkeyAlbaniaCroatiaSwitzerlandLuxembourgBelgiumNetherlandsPortugalSpainIrelandNew CaledoniaSolomon Is.New ZealandAustraliaSri LankaChinaTaiwanItalyDenmarkUnited KingdomIcelandAzerbaijanGeorgiaPhilippinesMalaysiaBruneiSloveniaFinlandSlovakiaCzechiaEritreaJapanParaguayYemenSaudi ArabiaN. CyprusCyprusMoroccoEgyptLibyaEthiopiaDjiboutiSomalilandUgandaRwandaBosnia and Herz.MacedoniaSerbiaMontenegroKosovoTrinidad and TobagoS. Sudan
$20B or more$5B to $20B$2B to $5BUnder $2BNot assigned
United States
$49.6B

Novo Nordisk $22.5B plus Eli Lilly about $27.1B (Mounjaro and Zepbound). About 69% of the two companies' GLP-1 sales.

Europe and Canada
$7.2B

Novo Nordisk only (its EUCAN region). Lilly does not report sales by region outside the US.

Emerging markets
$2.7B

Novo Nordisk only: Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Turkey, as grouped here.

Japan, Korea and Oceania
$2.0B

Novo Nordisk only (its APAC region).

China
$1.1B

Novo Nordisk only (Region China). Mounjaro was added to China's national reimbursement list, but Lilly gives no China figure.

Lilly outside the US
$9.4B

Mounjaro and Zepbound sales outside the US, not split by region, so not shown on the map.

Neither company reports sales by country, so the map uses Novo Nordisk's reporting regions; outside the US it shows Novo only. Region borders are approximate: Russia, Central Asia and South and Southeast Asia are left grey because we could not confirm which region they fall in. Converted at DKK 6.62 to the dollar, Novo's 2025 average. Lilly's US and ex-US totals are summed from its quarterly releases and rounded.

By company

Lilly passed Novo in 2025

GLP-1 sales in 2025, US against the rest of the world, in billions of US dollars.

Eli LillyMounjaro, Zepbound
$36.5B
Novo NordiskOzempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus, Victoza, Saxenda
$35.4B
United StatesOutside the US

Lilly sells more in the US; Novo still sells more abroad, where Ozempic and Wegovy launched earlier.

After 2025

Projections to 2030 and 2035

Each forecast measures something slightly different, so read the labels. The hollow dot is Goldman Sachs' earlier estimate, raised as pills went mass market.

$0B$50B$100B$150B$200B$250B2025203020352025 actual: $79B of GLP-1 sales, all makers (Morgan Stanley)$79B2025 actual: $66B of obesity drugs at list price, before discounts (IQVIA)$66B2030: $200B for all incretin drugs, diabetes and obesity (J.P. Morgan, Feb 2026)$200B2030: $114B for obesity drugs (Goldman Sachs, June 2026)$114B2030: $95B, Goldman's earlier estimate (May 2025), since raised$95B2035: $190B for diabetes and obesity, base case; range $170B to $240B (Morgan Stanley, Apr 2026)$190B
2025 actual: $79B of GLP-1 sales, all makers (Morgan Stanley)
2025 actual: $66B of obesity drugs at list price, before discounts (IQVIA)
2030: $200B for all incretin drugs, diabetes and obesity (J.P. Morgan, Feb 2026)
2030: $114B for obesity drugs (Goldman Sachs, June 2026)
2030: $95B, Goldman's earlier estimate (May 2025), since raised
2035: $190B for diabetes and obesity, base case; range $170B to $240B (Morgan Stanley, Apr 2026)
Pills in 2030
40%
Of obesity drug sales ($46B), in Goldman's June 2026 forecast
Outside the US in 2030
$48B
Goldman's ex-US obesity forecast, up from $39B
US patients by 2030
25-30M
On GLP-1 treatment, up from about 10 million in 2025 (J.P. Morgan)
Share treated by 2035
30%
Of obese or diabetic Americans, against 10% elsewhere (Morgan Stanley base case)

Falling prices are the main swing factor: Goldman Sachs cut its US cash-price assumption by 20% in June 2026 and still raised its total, because more people are expected to start treatment, especially on pills.

Sources